Friday evening snow update
Radar is showing convective banding taking place. The NWS in Louisville has even reported thundersnow from one of these convective bands. This will create tight snowfall gradients that will mean places...
View ArticleStorm wrap-up
Total snowfall accumulations at my house (6 miles east of Bowling Green) were 2.5″, with 2″ of that falling between 11 pm and 7 am this morning. Up to 4.5″ fell in western parts of Bowling Green where...
View ArticleModel disagreement for this weekend – which is right?
The GFS and ECMWF have very different interpretations of Easter weekend weather. While the GFS shows a couple of minor shortwaves rotating around the trough, the ECMWF has a blizzard for New England....
View ArticleRainy system Friday night/Saturday morning
The prolonged negative PNA pattern that has controlled the weather across the Mid-South since mid-March (right about the time I stopped posting) has kept things quiet and dry. That will change as a...
View ArticleShortwave generating machine
The rest of May is shaping up to be unsettled across the central United States as a perfect setup for shortwave generation in is place. (more…)
View ArticleTransition to cool NW flow
The phased jet streak pattern mentioned in my previous post that resulted in rain every 2-3 days will transition to a less wet but cool northwest flow over the next week. (more…)
View ArticleMid-week warmup – mid 80s possible
In my last post I mentioned that there was some model disagreement regarding the 2nd half of next week. I mentioned that the GFS called for a return to cold and wet while the European model kept the...
View ArticleWarm up delayed until the weekend – 90 possible Monday?
In my last post I discussed how a ridge would build across the central U.S. Thursday and Friday in response to a deepening trough over the western United States. As often happens this time of year, the...
View ArticleKentucky summer outlook 2008
June is almost here and Kentucky has yet to record a 90 degree day, although southern KY could get there on Friday (although I wouldn’t hold my breath). The median date for the first 90 degree day of...
View ArticleEarly season heat wave through mid-June
One small change in the value of a teleconnection is all that was needed to change our weather from cool and wet to hot and dry. This is a perfect example of why seasonal forecasting is so difficult....
View ArticlePattern change to cooler mid-month
The 2nd in a series of weakening cold fronts will bring about a pattern change that will end the early-season heat wave and bring about a return to cooler weather. The first front will cross the...
View ArticleCool pattern to end – but will it rain?
My last post two weeks ago ended with the following… If this all happens as currently forecast, the 2nd half of June could end up cooler than normal due to a NW flow, but we may not see very much in...
View ArticleSummer 2008 half-time report
Now that summer 2008 is officially half-over, I thought it would be interesting to see how my forecast from May is turning out. Aside from a very hot first two weeks of June, everything seems to be on...
View ArticleDolly remnants and 100F heat
A nasty 594 ridge is poised to bring the Mid-South close to the 100F mark this weekend. Will tropical thunderstorms from the remnants of Dolly keep us from triple digits? (more…)
View ArticleLate-week cool snap to follow heat
The last post mentioned that the heat wave this week would be short-lived due to a negative NAO that would develop mid-week. This negative NAO will now combine with a negative EPO and positive PNA to...
View ArticleFinally, some interesting weather
Since my last post in eary August, the weather over the Mid-South has been typical of August — Boring!! However, the models are showing signs of an active pattern for much of the eastern United States...
View ArticleOctober should start chilly
Aside from the gusty winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ike a week ago, September has been a dull month weather-wise for the Mid-South with a split flow pattern that has kept Kentucky comfortably...
View ArticleKyle heads to Nova Scotia – KY rain chances fizzle
Model trends show that Tropical Storm Kyle appears to be headed for Nova Scotia rather than New England, which will set a chain of events in motion that will diminish the chance for rain in the...
View ArticleAMS Mentorship program
The AMS Board for Private Sector Meteorologists (BPSM) has reached across private industry to connect a cross-section of professionals working in private sector positions related to meteorology willing...
View ArticleSplit-flow pattern to return
After the first real fall-like air mass of the season, a split-flow pattern will return to the Mid-South and temperatures will once again warm above normal. Rain chance look slim until the weekend of...
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